The purpose of the study was to derive and externally validate a prediction model for progression of IgAN. It consisted of 3927 patients from cohorts from Europe (VALIGA, n = 1406), Asia and North and South America (Oxford validation, n = 187), China (Beijing, n = 410, Nanjing, n= 1026) and Japan (Fukoka, n=702) were included and consisted of patients with biopsy proven IgAN with MEST scores and long term follow up. It analyzed the risk of 50% decline in eGFR for ESRD. Three prediction models were created: one which was clinical (eGFR, BP, proteinuria at biopsy) and 2 full models (including MEST score, age, medication use, and with or without racial/ethnic characteristics). External validation was performed in a cohort of 1146 patients. The 2 full prediction models were accurate and validated methods for predicting disease progression and patient risk stratification in IgAN in multiethnic cohorts
